Written for someone who has never touched a prediction market. Answer these three and the rest of the site is readable.
You are not buying a stock. You are buying a claim. If it happens, each share pays $1. If it doesn't, it pays zero.
Which means the price is the probability. A market at 0.62 says the crowd thinks there's a 62% chance.
The largest prediction market today. On-chain settlement, USDC, and a central limit order book.
The key difference: the house does not take the other side. Your counterparty is another trader; the platform only charges the taker. That makes it an exchange, not a sportsbook — and it changes completely how money is made here.
There are only four sources. Almost everything you'll read is one of these four, repackaged:
① Being right more often than the market (direction)
② Getting paid to quote (market making)
③ Structural mispricing (arbitrage)
④ Platform rebates (subsidy)
The same subject read at four depths. Enter at whichever one you're standing on.
How the market works, how fees are computed, who decides the outcome, how subsidies are paid. Skip this and everything after is guesswork.
FREE · FULLY PUBLICWhich plays are real and which are illusions. Ecosystem censuses, winner autopsies, and my own kill file.
FREE · FULLY PUBLICParameter ranges, market screening, cost calculators, pre-launch checklists. The layer you can actually act on.
TOOLSHow to write a preregistration, how to validate your measuring stick, how to build a replay harness, where the data comes from.
METHOD · CODE · DATASETSAll seven were paid for. Each one names where it came from.
Pass/fail criteria are written and timestamped before any data is seen. After that, addenda only — never a revised verdict.
The price that settles the market is not the price you're watching. On the 5-minute knife-edge window the two disagreed by 10.1% — and the error leaned my way. The "edge" I found was entirely an artifact of a broken label.
A losing leg expires worthless and leaves no trace in the activity feed. Of 825 unpaired shares only 236 left a record; 589 evaporated silently. My first pass computed +$187. The true figure was +$23.
Both rebate programs maxed out only move the required gross edge from 1.7pp to 1.5pp. They cannot rescue a strategy that is already negative. Measured: 371 windows, −$496.51, rebates received $0.
July's star wallet was already dead by the time I took it apart in August. Leaderboards are lagging indicators — by the time you copy, the window has closed.
The best wallet in the entire up/down market-making ecosystem earns roughly $95/day. Whether the method works is one question; how much money the lane can hold is a different one.
Before a line runs, write down how it will die. When it dies, claim one from the list — no inventing new explanations after the fact.
Lines still under judgment show a count only, never a name. Their criteria are already frozen and hash-anchored on-chain; on judgment day the full preregistration is published alongside the result. That is the rule, not discretion.
This is the most valuable section on the site. Everyone else writes "three tricks to arbitrage." Here are nine things I tried and why they failed.
| Experiment | Verdict | Basis | Cost |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC 5-minute taker | Final kill of its family | Preregistered read returned FAIL — the edge was absent, not eaten by fees | ~496 win · −$496.51 |
| Weather liquidity provision | Stopped early, archived | Replay returned FAIL; the star wallet being copied was itself already dead | ≈ −$210 |
| Up/down market making 5m / 15m | Quantitatively excluded | Median of 47 same-shape wallets: −0.74¢/share | none |
| Complementary-set arbitrage | Lane closed | Live opportunity inventory zero; 39% of the lane loses; only 22% of it is genuinely riskless | none |
| Ladder arbitrage | Falsified twice | Two independent data paths, both netting to zero | none |
| TWAP tail lock | Whole family closed | 0 of 4 tenors; information real, cost assumption false | none |
| NFL player props | Killed three ways | My own proposal, overturned by adversarial verification | none |
| Public forecasts vs weather prices | Already priced in | The 12–24 hour band is fully priced; nothing left | — |
| BTC direction agent fleet | Archived | No edge against the real book | — |
| A newer venue's outcome markets | Did not enter | Zero market-making rewards; total spread pie across the venue was $600/day | — |
Ordered shallow to deep. If you're not sure where you stand, read A through H in order.
How fees work, who resolves, how subsidies pay, how often the rules changed
Does quoting for rebates actually pay — adverse selection versus the rebate
Is "riskless arbitrage" real, and how much of it is left
Where the money is: vig, devigging, odds sources, real winner archetypes
Where I lost the most — the complete six-kill archive
How to tell whether a strategy is real. The most valuable section here
API semantics, data traps, circuit breakers, reconciliation
What agents can and cannot do, plus a teardown of the influencer tool stacks
Every entry states where its numbers came from and how to verify them. Knowledge is free here; only the engineering to run the whole thing is separate.
How fees work, who resolves, how subsidies pay, how often the rules changed
Does quoting for rebates actually pay — adverse selection versus the rebate
Is "riskless arbitrage" real, and how much of it is left
Where the money is: vig, devigging, odds sources, real winner archetypes
Where I lost the most, and the market-by-market verdicts
How to tell whether a strategy is real. The most valuable section here
API semantics, data traps, circuit breakers, reconciliation
Things you can actually run. Not an ebook.