LZLZL/Prediction markets/Mechanics
FREESEE IT A · MechanicsReference

Glossary
English ⇄ 中文

2026-08-21 · 85 entries · with the bases I had to learn the hard way

Nearly every Chinese-language source in this field is a direct translation of English terms, and the same word routinely gets three renderings. This table is the reference I write against. It differs from other glossaries in one way: the last column is not a definition, it is what tripped me up — where it is marked , the literal reading is wrong.

How to usesearch anything you do not recognise. Arriving from You are buying a verdict, sections A and B are enough to read any board; C onward only matters once you are actually trading.

AMarkets & contractsBFees & subsidiesCBook & microstructureDSports & oddsEResearch methodFEngineering & dataGDon't confuse

AMarkets & contracts16

English中文In one lineMy basis
prediction market预测市场A market where prices express the probability of an event
outcome token结果代币Pays $1 if its outcome wins, $0 otherwise
CLOB中央限价订单簿How orders match — not an AMM poolPolymarket is a CLOB, not an automated pool
maker / taker做市方 / 吃单方Posting liquidity vs consuming itmakers pay no fee; the whole fee sits on the taker
split拆分USDC → one full set of complementary tokens
merge合并A full set → USDC backthe activity feed carries a MERGE row — no inference needed
redeem赎回After settlement, convert the winner to USDCdo not trust a redeemable flag — see the phantom-empty trap
complementary set互补集All mutually exclusive outcomes of one event
NegRisk无风险聚合The complementary-set mechanism for multi-outcome events
resolution结算Who rules on the outcome, and on whatthe source differs per category — read it every time
optimistic oracle (UMA)乐观预言机Assume the submission is true; challengeable within a window
up/down market上下盘Does a crypto price rise or fall within a fixed window
tenor周期How long a board runs (5m / 15m / 1h / 4h)tenor decides everything: pair rates 47% / 71% / 87% / 95%
windowOne complete cycle of an up/down boardI weight statistics per window, equally
strike行权价The reference price for up vs down
rewardsMinSize挂单最小额Minimum size to qualify for rewardsmetadata — it does not mean the board actually pays

BFees & subsidies9

English中文In one lineMy basis
taker fee吃单费What the taker paysMeasured: fee = 0.07·p(1−p)·shares; heaviest at 50¢
theta (θ)费率系数The 0.07 in that formulaMeasured by reconciliation, not documented
maker rebate做市返还20% of the taker's fee returns to the filled maker+0.25¢/share, only on fills — unrelated to how long you quoted
taker rebate ladder吃单阶梯返利Six tiers by 30-day rolling weighted volumeBronze 3% → Obsidian 50%; taker volume only, maker volume does not count
weighted volume (wV)加权量The ladder's unit of accountstake ×(1−entry price)× category weight; Crypto 2.3, Geopolitics 0
LP rewards流动性奖励Scored on quote quality, paid from a daily poolclobRewards:[] does not mean no rewards — check the sampling endpoint
referral邀请返利10% of the referee's net taker fee, for 30 dayscurrent terms date from 2026-05-28; most guides still quote 30%/180 days
net fee净费Venue receipts = taker fee − the referee's own ladder rebateReferral pays on net, not gross
effective uplift等效增厚Rebates restated as points off each tradeBoth maxed ≈ 0.17–0.18pp against a fee line of 1.75pp

CBook & microstructure14

English中文In one lineMy basis
spread价差Best ask minus best bid
mid中价The midpoint of the spreadA price at which nothing trades
depth深度Resting size at each levelState how many levels, and one side or both
queue position排队位置Your place among orders at the same pricesimulate conservatively: assume all displayed size sits ahead of you
adverse selection逆向选择The fills you get are the ones you did not wantThe real cost of market making — racing the rebate
toxicity毒性How much a flow hurts the makerMeasured via short-window price drift after the fill
markout成交后漂移Price drift shortly after your own fill, excluding itTells you whether that fill was good or bad
walk the book吃穿订单簿Fill through successive levels to reach a sizeBacktests must use real levels — a flat price gives a false answer
notional名义额The money size of one orderCLOB minimum is 5 shares → $5 is the only price-independent fixed stake
clip单笔规模Size of a single order
no-fill未成交You wanted the fill and did not get itReport the rate separately — never let them vanish from the sample
pair rate配对率Share of two-sided fills that form mergeable setstruncated replay overstates it — measured 1.3× to 2.1×
naked leg裸腿The unmatched sidea losing naked leg leaves no trace in the activity feed
inventory / exposure库存 / 敞口What you are holding and which way it leans

DSports & odds15

English中文In one lineMy basis
vig / juice / overround水位 / 抽水The bookmaker's margin baked into the oddsThe amount by which implied probabilities exceed 100%
devig去水Strip the margin to recover fair probabilities
the four devig methods去水四法multiplicative / additive / power / Shinthey diverge noticeably at long odds — exactly where spreads appear
fair probability公允概率The post-devig probabilityMethods differ most at long odds; test a finding under all four
sharp book锐利庄家Prices accurately, takes size, treated as consensus
soft book软庄家Retail-facing, slower to move
closing line收盘线The last price before kickoffThe industry's accepted benchmark
CLV胜过收盘线How much better your entry was than the closeThe standard skill metric — converges far faster than P&L
American / decimal / HK odds美式 / 小数 / 香港赔率Three ways of writing the same thing
moneyline独赢Straight winner
spread / handicap让分Winner with a head start
total / over-under大小球Combined score above or below a line
3-way三路盘Win / draw / loss — typical in footballA three-outcome complementary set
pregame / in-play赛前 / 滚球Before the start vs duringthe real winners' money is almost entirely pregame
odds API赔率 APIA feed of bookmaker oddsmainstream odds APIs have zero esports coverage

EResearch method18

English中文In one lineMy basis
preregistration预注册Freeze the pass/fail criteria before lookingTimestamp it; afterwards you may append, never revise
gate判决门A pass condition written down in advanceAny one failing is a failure; the bar is never lowered
single read单次读数Read once at expiry; no peeking for a decisionStops you from stopping at the prettiest number
kill rule杀死规则The condition under which the line stops
pre-claimed failure modes预先认领的死法Write down how it will die, before it runsClaim one from the list afterwards; inventing new ones is not allowed
exploratory scan探索扫描Hypothesis generation — disclose the whole gridScan output is never a conclusion by itself
promotion rule晋级规则What a scan finding must pass before it gets moneyStops cherry-picking cells
shadow / paper trade影子盘Run it without money first
forward test前向验证Validate on data generated after the fact
out-of-sample样本外Not part of what the model was built on
null / baseline空模型 / 基准A control that uses no strategy at alla profit that cannot beat the null is not an edge
replay / backtest回放Re-run on historical dataState the direction of the bias — conservative or optimistic
measuring stick量尺The ground truth you judge wins and losses againstrulers break: oracle TWAP vs exchange close mislabelled 10.1% of the whole sample, with direction
settle label结算标签Labels taken from actual market settlementHouse rule: score against settlement; the other basis is a companion read only
excess (pp)超额mean(win − entry price), points per share
pp百分点An absolute difference in probabilityKept strictly separate from %
adversarial verification对抗验证Assign someone to overturn your own findingDefault: if it cannot be shown to hold, treat it as overturned
epoch纪元A sample segment between configuration changesnever pool across epochs

FEngineering & data9

English中文In one lineMy basis
relayer中继器A service that submits chain transactions for you
EOA外部账户An ordinary key-controlled address
allowance授权额度How much of your token a contract may move
disperse批量派发Batched reward transfersAbout 400 per transaction
tape逐笔成交流Every fill, in orderthe data API caps at 5,500 rows
snapshot快照A point-in-time slice of book or positions
hard stop / circuit breaker硬停 / 熔断Trip and haltpoisoned input causes a false halt — validate before you stop
shakedown预检期An opening period spent checking the instrument worksDo not collect a full sample and only then discover it was wrong
commit-reveal承诺-揭示Publish a hash now, the contents laterProves what you thought at the time without disclosing it

GThe "don't confuse these" list

The four pairs I get wrong most often when writing.

Easily confusedThe difference
The four “rebates”Maker rebate (only on fills) · taker ladder (by taker volume) · LP rewards (on quote quality) · referral (on recruits) — four rulebooks, four pools, four payout times
Two clocksThe settling price (on-chain TWAP) ≠ the price you watch (exchange spot). Confusing them is a broken ruler
Two “profits”Trading P&L ≠ net income. ⚠ the leaderboard's /profit field excludes every subsidy — subsidies are transfers, not trades
pp vs %“hit rate from 50% to 52%” is +2pp, not +2%. Every edge on this site is in pp

BasisWhy the last column is the point

Glossaries normally stop at translation and definition. But in this business almost nothing is lost on definitions — it is lost on bases: what you thought a number meant differs slightly from what it means, and everything computed from it is wrong.

WordLiteral readingActually
rebatemoney the venue gives back four unrelated mechanisms with different rules, pools and payout times → the four rebates
profitwhat someone made trading P&L ≠ net income. Subsidies are transfers and never enter that field
rulerthe price that decides wins possibly not the price you watch10.1% measured

And one unglamorous item that keeps causing damage: pp versus %. "Hit rate from 50% to 52%" is +2pp, not +2% (that would be 51%). Mix the two symbols once and the magnitudes in an entire document become unreadable. Every edge here is stated in pp.

RulesHow this table is maintained

Single source of truth my own writing follows this table; where prose and table disagree, the prose changes.
Add before you write a term not in the table gets added first, then used. That is how renderings stay stable across entries.
Untranslated tables, code, numbers and formulas stay as they are.
Where the ⚠ column comes from entirely from my own live trading and reconciliation, not copied from documentation. Wherever it is checkable, the method is given in the corresponding entry.
What is not here this table covers public mechanics only. Internal names, parameters and features from my own strategies are not in it and will not be added.

NextWhere to go

A · MECHANICS
You are buying a verdict, not a stock
B · REBATES
Four different things all called "rebate"
F · METHOD
Your backtest won, but the ruler was wrong
INDEX
All entries
This is an educational and research record. It is not investment advice, promises no returns, and offers no personalised trading recommendations. Rules and API behaviour are per the official documentation; this page states when it was checked and both can change without notice. Prediction markets are restricted or unavailable in some jurisdictions — confirm your own before taking part.