Weather boards come with a solid-sounding idea: meteorological forecasts are public, free, and quite accurate, so compare them against the quoted prices and the gap is your edge. I checked: the 12-to-24-hour band is fully priced. Nothing left.
| Premise | True? |
|---|---|
| Professional forecasts beat amateur judgement by a lot | yes |
| Forecasts are public and free | yes |
| Weather participants are largely non-professional | broadly yes |
| Therefore quotes lag the forecast | does not follow |
The first three hold and the fourth does not follow from them — which is exactly why this deserves an entry.
Public means every participant can see it — including the ones quoting seriously. It only takes a handful of people watching the forecast and quoting against it to move the price into line with it.
You do not need "everyone to be sophisticated". You need a few people to be, and the price already reflects public information. That is the normal state of this venue: pricing is set by the most diligent few, not by the average participant.
So the correct question is not "are the participants sophisticated" but "is anybody doing this". The answer is usually yes — especially for anything that requires no barrier to attempt.
| Band | Conclusion |
|---|---|
| 12 to 24 hours | fully priced, nothing remaining |
This is the most attractive band: forecasts are quite accurate at that horizon and the board still has time to trade. Which is precisely why it was cleaned out first.
Basisthis band is what I checked. I reached no separate conclusion on longer or shorter horizons, so none is stated here — though a reasonable prior is that the easier something is to do, the likelier it is already gone.
| Information real? | Market aware? | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public forecasts | yes | yes | nothing left |
| TWAP tail lock | yes | yes (90.2% hit vs 0.9033 price) | net −0.47pp |
What pays has to be a pattern others do not know, or know and cannot act on. Both these lines failed at that first gate, and both were caught cheaply: compare the advantage you found against the quoted price at the time.
To avoid leaving the wrong impression, the category's conclusions side by side:
| Conclusion | |
|---|---|
| The reward pool | real, paid daily and verifiable on-chain |
| Ladder arbitrage | falsified twice, independently |
| Forecasts vs prices | 12–24h band fully priced |
| My own LP line | about −$210, archived |
Public information confers no advantage, because pricing is set by the most diligent few rather than the average participant. So "the people in this market are unsophisticated" is not a reason to bet; "nobody is doing this" would be — and it is usually false.